30 hours; Watch for updates… – Tillamook County Pioneer

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By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for Tillamook County Pioneer
Friday November 4, 2022; 8:30 am

Because the weather is a bit crazy today, I’m writing the forecast this morning, knowing that things are going to change from hour to hour today. I just tallied the rainfall at Tillamook airport and see there has been 1.91” of rain since 2am and winds were 30 gusting to 45 on the beaches. The only warning* currently issued for the county is for a high wind warning for the Coast Range which is valid from 11:00 a.m. this morning until 11:00 p.m. tonight for winds of 20 to 30 gusting to 50. At this time, the only river that is expected to reach the flood stage is the Gray River in Washington. Keep in mind, however, that the numbers may change as new data is introduced into the models. All this must therefore be closely monitored.

Thus, the area has seen the warm frontal portions of this system pass through this morning, but the cold frontal portion remains and will move later this afternoon and eventually push through late tonight, possibly around midnight if the patterns are correct. Current thinking is that the region will see 4 to 6 inches of rain on the Coast and the Coast Range 6 to 8 inches. All this rain will quickly increase the flow of the rivers in the area, but fortunately the rivers were still low, so none of the rivers in the area should even reach the action stage. *As I always add, this is subject to change without notice in future forecasts. Heavy rains could still produce localized flooding as the rain falls faster than the drains and small streams can handle it.

*EDITORS NOTE: Since Gordon sent this to the Pioneer, a flood warning has been issued – for an area flood advisory at noon today until 10 p.m. tonight, November 4. See Flood Advisory.

And the forecast, well, cloudy and rainy, moderate to strong at times, winds becoming southwest 25-30 gusting to 45, highs near 58. The front/atmospheric river crosses, somewhere after midnight, the Winds are decreasing to west 15 -20 gusting to 30, low near 43.

Tomorrow looks cloudy with showers as a low pressure trough moves in, gusty westerly winds 10 to 15 gusting to 30, highs near 50. Add a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow evening, still on the windy side, lows near 38. It’s possible to see another inch of rain tomorrow.

The threat of showers and thunderstorms remains on Sunday with winds from the southwest 10 to 15 gusting to 20, and the snow level is starting to fall, dropping to near 2300′, highs near 47, and with unstable colder air moving again, the threat of showers/thunderstorms remains with lows dropping to near 36, snow levels down to near 2100′.

As for next week, concerns shift from hydrology (flooding) to travel, especially over the passes of the Coast Range. Monday should be fair with a few more showers, highs near 47, lows near 32 though, so snow levels could be low with possible snow accumulation near the peaks.

Tuesday is when things get interesting again. Tuesday morning you may see snow or snow shower mixing in the low levels with snow accumulation in the cols as the snow level drops towards 1100′. Tuesday evening snow is possible in the low levels with snow accumulations up to near 700, but with the morning low temperature expected to be in the upper 20s you may see some morning snow commuting with possible school delays.

Wednesday still a chance of low level morning rain or snow showers, highs near 46, lows near 31 so the passes are looking at snow and/or ice conditions through Thursday when the Freezing level eventually climbs to around 3000′.

Next week’s post, Know Before You Go, check Tripcheck.com and weather.gov/Portland to see what your trip looks like, before you go!

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