October 19 PM Weather Forecast Update – Much warmer weather ahead but with plenty of wind and a continued fire risk before a flurry of showers/thunderstorms passes early next week … | New


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Lows this morning were 27-35 with highs reaching xx-xx today with strong westerly winds and high fire danger.



Increasing high and medium clouds and lows of 29 to 32 are expected this evening with southwest winds of 7 to 12 mph.


High fire danger will be with us tomorrow afternoon with highs of 57 to 64 and dew points down to the teens dropping to 20 in the afternoon resulting in very low humidity of 20% or less .

Additionally, west-southwest to southwest winds will be sustained at 15-23 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph.

Skies will become mostly sunny to sunny then see rising clouds again late in the day.


Lows of 36 to 42 are expected tomorrow evening with southwest winds of 6 to 11 mph.

Friday looks set to turn mostly sunny with strong sustained southwesterly winds at 16-24 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph.

With dew points between 20 and 30, the risk of fire will be high.

Highs of 68-76 are expected.


Lows of 45 to 51 are expected Friday evening with southwest winds of 13 to 24 mph.

Saturday features sunshine with a few scattered high clouds and highs of 75-81 with yet another windy and fire-prone day with sustained southwesterly winds at 17-24 mph and gusting to 30-40 mph.

Dew points will be in the 30s to 40s.


Sunday promises to be particularly windy with sustained southerly winds at 20-30 mph with gusts of 37-46 mph. With sunshine and scattered, scattered clouds, dew points will reach to at least the 40s to drop to the 50s. crops scorched by dry winds, lack of rainfall and freezing conditions.

Highs of 77-82 are expected.


Sunday night looks windy and warm with lows of just 55-61, followed by highs of 76-81 on Monday with rising clouds and southerly winds at 40 mph.

There will likely be a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather from Minnesota to Iowa to Missouri and east to Nebraska and Kansas from Sunday through Monday.

Here we see remnants of this severe weather likely late Monday evening-Tuesday morning.

A weakening squall line followed by some stratiform rain will likely pass.

It is not excluded that we have a risk of one or two isolated severe storms if enough ML CAPE can be achieved.

Tuesday morning lows are forecast to be near 61 followed by highs of 63 to 68 as all rain ceases and a slow clearing trend sets in in the afternoon with the wind shifting to the west.

This system will have a source of moisture from a tropical depression or tropical storm off the coast of Mexico that is moving inland.

Thus, preliminary data suggests 0.60-1″ of possible precipitation.


Slightly cooler weather will follow Wednesday of next week with highs of 50 to 60 with lows in the 30s followed by another pretty big warm up.

The 70s will probably come back.


It looks particularly warm during the first few days of November with widespread 70s to even near 80s (near/record warm).


It still looks like a chance of severe weather may occur closer to November 5th.

Looks like a MILD RISK settings situation from Minnesota to Arkansas translating to the east. Parameters may still remain up to SLIGHT RISK here given current preliminary data.


Ongoing heat waves could occur until around November 15th. Some severe hazards and a strong cold front should then bring much colder air here.

Temperatures can drop up to 20 degrees below normal with even a few snow showers.


We should then moderate and warm near then even briefly above normal closer to Thanksgiving before getting much colder again with even some snow.



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