Warmer weather today; Better chance of rain ahead

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A few morning showers and thunderstorms developed in south-central KELOLAND. You can see this image from our Gregory LiveCAm from 7am showing rain towards the Winner area.

Scattered rain blasts won’t last too long. A hot afternoon is coming for much of KELOLAND.

The 30-day rain map is starting to change. Notice the yellow and orange growth areas in central and parts of northeast SD. We will soon lose the footprint of the big July 5 storm on this map, illustrating the need for rain.

Temperatures will turn warmer today in western KELOLAND with some areas near 100. Heat will increase tomorrow as a cold front approaches from the northwest. We expect areas of thunderstorms to develop tomorrow evening along the front. Some could be locally severe with damaging winds and pockets of heavy rain, primarily in south central SD.

The map below shows the marginal risk of severe weather in green for Friday.

The outlook will shift to the southeast on Saturday.

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We expect a few more thunderstorms to develop during the day Saturday along the front as it slides south and east. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon in the Black Hills as another upper air disturbance progresses into KELOLAND Saturday evening through Sunday morning. This will give us our best chance for more widespread rains, with the hope that a few more areas at the worst of the drought will receive at least some short-term relief.

The rainfall accumulations will be locally significant due to the abundance of humidity at great depth in the atmosphere. Rainfall totals greater than 1″ will be present, but there are still more details to watch on the placement of the heaviest rainfall. The map below represents the raw data of the European model.

We can weight the probabilities of heavier rains by looking at the European model ensemble data. It is encouraging to see him trying to generate 1″ rain patches south of I-90 where he is badly needed. We expect these maps to adapt to the latest data and tomorrow, so keep watching for updates.

Warm weather will return to the plains in the long term forecast.

Here is an overview of the forecast.

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