Weather forecast for plantations: return of heat and humidity with threat of storms


Warmer weather is developing over the state over the coming week. As the heat rises, our threat of thunderstorms also increases. So we may end up being more active, but there will also be a lot of holes in the precipitation, especially after Monday.

Overall, we expect the region to move towards a drier than normal pattern until at least the end of the month. The map below shows the total rainfall potential for the next 10 days, but much of it falls between Saturday June 11 and Tuesday June 14.

Saturday is expected to be dry in all parts of Indiana. Clouds can be more of a hassle in some places than others, but overall we’re looking pretty decent for the start of the weekend. Sunday we have a system crossing the Great Lakes and it’s going to throw some moisture into Indiana.

From I-70 north, we expect scattered showers and even a thunderstorm or two, with general rain totals of 0.1″-0.7″ and 70% coverage. South of I-70, we’re not ruling out a shower or two, but we end up with less than 20% coverage and totals of a few tenths or less. Clouds will dominate in the north, but we will likely see better sunshine in parts of the south.

The heat begins to rise on Monday as a warm front lifts. This heat is creating instability with the front, and we will likely see a nice outbreak of strong to severe weather across the state for the afternoon and evening. Rainfall totals can be half to 2 inches with 70% coverage. Severe weather threats will be primarily Monday afternoon. We clean the night of Monday evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be sunny, hot and humid. The heat indices will be high, but this model will give us a lot of heat units. A cool front on Thursday is minor, but showers cannot be ruled out. We can see a few hundredths at 0.25″ with 40% coverage. A slight cooling will be the biggest consequence of the frontal passage. This cooling lasts one day on Friday.

The heat and drought return from next weekend to the following Monday.

Extended period:

A minor front on Tuesday June 21st will bring maybe a few hundredths to a few tenths but will break the heat cycle a bit. The rest of the extended period remains sunny and dry until Monday June 27th. This pattern, if maintained, will dry out the area very quickly.

Oeeks 3 & 4:

Rainfall is expected to be easily below normal for both weeks, and temperatures will be normal to slightly above normal for week 3 and well above normal for week 4.

Precipitation for week 3 (green = above normal, brown = below)

Week 3 temperatures (yellow/orange = above normal, blue = below)

Precipitation for week 4 (green = above normal, brown = below)

Week 4 temperatures (yellow/orange = above normal, blue = below)


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