BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KGET) – Monday will be the first day of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra, with the majority of activity along the ridges.
High-resolution models, including the HRRR, also show a slight possibility of showers and heavy thunderstorms moving into the Mariposa Foothills and Merced County overnight early Tuesday morning.
Temperatures through the middle of the week will remain in the triple digits in the valley, desert and foothills. The ensembles show no abnormally strong peaks. So, even if the temperatures will be slightly above average, they will not be out of the ordinary for this time of year.
The latest mixed NBM guidelines show a high probability (>80%) of at least 100 degrees or more across much of the Sierra Valley and foothills. But cloud cover from daily showers or thunderstorms could limit heating.
Smoke from the Oak Fire in Mariposa County will continue to affect much of the district, especially north of Kern County.
From Thursday through the end of the seven-day forecast period, ensembles indicate high pressure will remain centered over the central Great Basin with southeasterly flow aloft over California’s central interior.
We will continue to see daily chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra with triple digit heat continuing on the lower elevations.