Weather in Jackson Hole from Sep 27 to Oct 3, 2022

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JACKSON, Wyo.– We are in the midst of warm and beautiful fall weather, which will continue through the middle of this week. The next storm system will arrive on Thursday, with showers, thunderstorms and decent precipitation totals, but snow levels will remain high when most of the precipitation falls due to mild temperatures in place.

Recap September 20-26

Last week started hot and dry before the arrival of a storm system on Wednesday, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms followed by cooler temperatures and lingering showers on Thursday.

Snow levels were relatively high for most of this event as the incoming moisture was subtropical in nature. However, as cooler air arrived on Thursday, snow levels dropped to around 10,000 feet, but the snow that fell quickly melted in most areas except for shady terrain on the higher high peaks.

The city of Jackson received 0.62 inches of rain last week, all of which fell between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon. Elsewhere, Moran picked up 0.72 inches of rain while radar estimates indicate the Tetons likely received between 0.75 and 1.50 inches of rain.

After last week’s storm system, conditions quickly dissipated Friday through Monday with exceptional fall weather.

Last week, high temperatures ranged from 57°F on September 22 to 29°C on September 26 and low temperatures ranged from 29°F on September 24 to 43°F on September 23. Other than Thursday and Friday, temperatures have been warmer than average for this time of year for most of last year. the week.

Forecast from Tuesday (27/09) to Monday (03/10)

Hot and dry conditions will continue for two more days on Tuesday and Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure remains in place over the western US highs and will reach the upper 70s in the valley on both days, which is above average for the end of September. Mostly sunny skies and light winds can also be expected on both days.

On Thursday, the next storm system will arrive, bringing intermittent showers from Thursday morning through Thursday evening as well as gusty southwesterly winds. Thunderstorms will also be possible in the afternoon. This system doesn’t seem as strong as last week’s, but decent amounts of rain will still be possible.

The warm air mass in place when this system arrives will also bring high snow levels on Thursday, ranging from 11,000 to 12,000 feet.

On Friday, lingering moisture will bring additional scattered showers, but the coverage and amounts will be less than Thursday. A cold front will also arrive early Friday which will cause snow levels to drop to between 8,500 and 10,000 feet. However, any accumulation up to these altitudes will be lighter and will melt in the coming days.

In the valley, highs will reach the upper 60s on Thursday and the upper 50s on Friday.

On Saturday the slow moving storm system will move east of the area but we will likely continue to see cloud cover. However, the easterly winds will only favor light showers/sprinkling, so it will be a relatively dry day. Temperatures will remain cooler though, with highs near 60 in the valley.

East of Jackson Hole, heavier precipitation, including snow, is possible in the Absaroka and Wind River Ranges Friday night and Saturday, so be careful if you go that way.

Sunday will start to dry out more, although some splashing (and high altitude showers) can’t be entirely ruled out if this latest storm system lingers east for longer than expected. Highs are currently expected to reach the mid-60s in the valley.

On Monday, further drying is expected with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s – signaling another spell of near-perfect fall weather.

Extended Outlook

Dry and sunny conditions are likely through the first half of next week with a ridge of high pressure in place over the western United States.

During the second half of next week, we may see one or two weaker disturbances arrive with occasional showers possible. However, the pattern does not appear conducive to large storm systems at this time. Temperatures will fluctuate depending on whether or not disturbances arrive, but overall early October looks warmer than average.

To note: I will be on vacation for the first two weeks of October and will not be posting weather updates during this time. The next weekly weather update will be released on October 17 or 18.

Alan Smith, Meteorologist

Climatology of the city of Jackson from September 20 to 26:

Medium top: 66

Medium Low: 28

High record: 87 (October 1, 1997)

Record low: 9 (September 30, 1985 and October 1, 1950)

Precipitation since October 1: 17.93″ (104% of average)

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